All posts tagged United States

Nobody Wants to Play with Barack Anymore

Posted by / 2nd July 2013 / Categories: Opinion / Tags: , , / -

When US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Jerusalem last week to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, what will have gone through his mind when Netanyahu made him wait for an hour? Perhaps he felt that the prime minister did him a favour. By signalling the complete lack of trust between the two administrations, and by symbolizing the impotence of the highest representative of President Barack Obama, pressure was taken off Kerry’s shoulders to return home with, as he calls them, actual “positive outcomes”. Performing the obligatory ritual of negotiating peace in the Middle East has been a Sisyphean task during the best of times, but these days it is a particularly thankless job for the US State Department. This is not because peace is out of reach- ’twas always thus, and always thus will be- but because United States leadership has become a nuisance on the international stage. It is flapping its geopolitical arms around like a child who is no longer the centre of attention at the playground, and who is desperately trying to get his audience back with new, exciting ideas. And the other kids no longer care. Representing that child must be emotionally draining, even for someone as unflappable as John Kerry.

The White House under Barack Obama has continued its decline which began during the Bush presidency. It went from being an undisputed world leader to that of a powerful but slightly antiquated, uncomfortable and strangely irrelevant presence on the world stage. The United States remains a source of great influence and prestige. It is still unmatched scientifically and economically, and it is still the most important source of global culture and innovation. But its formal representative and voice to the outside world- the president and his administration- have become the child that no one wants to play with. The German kid has the moral high ground, the Russian kid the chutzpah and the Chinese kid the cool toys.

Obama knows it. First, he tried to scare the world into following him. There was the almost obligatory episode about Iran, in which Obama, just like every of his predecessors since 1979, tried to argue that Teheran’s nuclear programme is an existential threat to the world. And then there was the awkward and perplexing stand-off with North Korea. As the former cool kid you know when you are in trouble when you get into a shouting match with a toddler half your age. More recently, there has been the confused- and quickly rebuffed- hard-line towards Syria.

When the stick failed, the White House tried carrots. In the past weeks alone they have launched major international initiatives on non-proliferation, climate change, and Kerry’s doomed mission to kick-start a US led peace process in the Middle East. The first was shot down by Moscow in a matter of hours, the second lacks any credibility at home, and the third started off with their only true ally in the region arriving late and grumpy. It is quite a feat to be disliked by both the Israeli establishment as well as environmentalists in San Francisco.

Clearly, throwing initiatives at a wall and hoping that some of them stick is not working out for Obama. It can no longer distract the world’s attention from Washington’s political incompetence. Initiatives devoid of substance can no longer compete in an age in which Edward Snowden dominates the global psyche.

The world does not look to the United States for leadership anymore. Times have changed. The War on Terror, Iraq and Afghanistan, the financial crisis, drone assassinations, Guantanamo Bay, and now the NSA wiretapping revelations have reduced the White House to near irrelevance as a source of guidance. Its leadership depended on credibility, on being the light on the hill that Americans like to portray themselves as. Bizarrely, Russia and China are quickly becoming more credible actors on the international stage. Not because they are a beacon of morality- they clearly are not- but because they do not pretend to be. Their influence comes from hard power, and they know it. Everyone knows it. Foreigners do not have to listen to sanctimonious and hypocritical speeches when doing business with them, and it is no wonder that as a result they are a hit in many parts of the world.

Susan Rice, the incoming national security adviser, said in response to the Snowden leaks that she thinks that “the United States of America is and will remain the most influential, powerful and important country in the world, the largest economy, and the largest military, [with] a network of alliances, values that are universally respected”. Only the last bit about universal values is relevant, and on that she is wrong: the US has lost its way in that one, crucial regard. US long-term influence never came from its military capabilities or even economic prowess. It was always based on something more intangible, something to do with purpose, with hope that human societies can grow and eventually prosper. The world was willing to forgive the United States its mistakes, as long as it provided such hope. The American nation was even allowed to throw a few tantrums, even damage its surroundings, as long as it was willing to learn and grow. It projected a sense of naive optimism that the old guard in Europe had lost long ago. Vietnam, nuclear proliferation, and destructive power games were fiercely criticised, but did not undermine that sense of universal hope. Their most important foreign policy was their national identity.

When Obama won the 2008 elections on a platform of hope and change, he tapped into that global thirst for leadership. Not one based on hard power or even diplomatic strong-arming, but based on representing a society that was essentially optimistic and well-intentioned. By not delivering that promise to return to a world based not on fear but on optimism, he put the nail in the coffin of his country’s position as main voice for the global community. His mandate was to change the vicious dynamics that were slowly undermining the White House’s leadership in a quagmire of complex Washington dynamics. Instead of being that moral beacon- Nobel Peace Prize endorsed, no less- he made the world see US political leadership as an obnoxious little kid with too many economic and military toys at its disposal. Nobody wants to play anymore, no matter how many games little Barack can think of.  facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail

The Chinese Dragon and the Western Whale in Africa

Posted by / 30th November 2011 / Categories: Analysis / Tags: , , , / -

With all the attention dedicated to the economic crisis, it is easy to forget in Europe or the US that there is a whole different dynamic going on in sub-Saharan Africa. Many African countries are increasingly the battleground of a struggle between two global giants: Western forces from Europe and North-America on the one hand, and the Chinese State on the other. The difference? One consists of loosely defined conglomerates with diverse cultural, political and economic interests, whereas the other is a centralized and well-oiled state machine that is unburdened by morality or ambiguous agendas. It will be a surprise to no one that the latter is winning. Whether that is good news for Africa remains unclear.

When looking at countries in the Sahel or central Africa, ghosts from the Cold War era seem to linger everywhere. Two large powers battling it out over the backs of local populations, manipulating governments, and viewing Africa as a tool for global advancement, rather than as an independent entity. Yet, one cannot help the feeling that something is completely different as well.

The West is still doing what it always does, putting itself in the impossible position of wanting to be a force for universal “good”- as flexibly defined in offices in Paris, Washington or London, but usually including golden oldies like “democracy” and “human rights”- while at the same time being unwilling to escape from the clutches of self-interest and internal lobbies. Add to that the fact that “the West” is an eclectic collection of mostly uncoordinated state actors, multinationals, cultural movements and NGOs, plus some supposedly supranational organizations thrown into the mix, and one automatically feels sorry for local communities that need to deal with such chaos.

In contrast to the Cold War, however, the Soviet Union has been replaced by a decidedly original type of player: the People’s Republic of China. Unlike its extinct communist relative, China has no interest or time for exporting ideology or ethical values. China wants resources, and China wants influence. And lo and behold, China gets resources. And China gets influence. Unlike the eclectically burdened Western forces, Beijing’s practical approach is free from any type of limits on its willingness or ability to attain is objectives. Needless to say, this is an enormous competitive advantage over its direct competitors.

In a way, China plays the Westphalian game the way it should be played: it follows the strict rules of having a singular representative of its own territory being responsible for planning and communication with the outside world. As an African political leader, you know who you are dealing with, and you know the cost-benefit analysis of doing business with the Asian superpower.

Contrast this to dealing with the Western conglomerate: one has to manage the complex political structures between European and American nations, while at the same time balancing their words and needs with those of NGOs, business and other external actors with distinct and often conflicting agendas. No wonder that African capitals are increasingly filled by Chinese contractors! If you want to get things done, call Beijing. If you want a diplomatic nightmare of economic interests covered by a sauce of neocolonial arrogance, call Washington (as long as afterwards you call New York, London, Paris and Berlin, plus the headquarters of a few dozen international organizations as well, just to make sure that everyone is alright with your initial call to Washington).

The West has evolved into a giant network, a creature, no longer capable of dealing with the natural (Westphalian) laws surrounding it. It is like a whale on dry land, creating a headache for any local leader that has to deal with such a monster washing ashore. Sometimes it is sincere, often it isn’t, but it is consistently an unwieldy burden on local populations.

The Chinese dragon, on the other hand, flies wherever it deems necessary, offers some gold, threatens with fire, and soon moves on to other areas that catch its eyes. It feels at home in the Westphalian environment, in which it can bully and bribe while still behaving according to the systemic rules that supposedly regulate global affairs.

What does this mean for Africa? It is too early to say, and it will mostly depend on the ability of African leaders to manage the rivalry between these two global giants. Instinctively, however, it is hard to sympathize with Western hypocrisy. At least China does not pretend.

It is said that when two elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers. The Cold War elephants no longer exist. It is now the whale and the dragon that compete. And at the risk of abusing that metaphor, one can’t help wondering which the African grass prefers: an unwieldy whale, rolling and struggling to find a comfortable spot? Or a dragon that may burn some meadows with its flames, yet is agile and practically oriented, without overextending its stay?

 

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